Rate cut likely as underlying inflation falls within RBA target range

<p>Headline inflation – which includes the impact of government cost-of-living policies such as rebates – held steady at 2.4% in the year to March</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/apr/30/australia-election-2025-live-housing-crisis-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-campaign-final-week-labor-coalition-cpi-inflation-ntwnfb">Election 2025 live updates: Australia federal election campaign</a></li><li><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2025/apr/30/australia-election-polls-latest-aus-opinion-poll-tracker-results-current-polling-survey-labor-vs-liberal-dutton-albanese">Polls tracker</a>; <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/30/australian-election-2025-voters-guide-how-to-vote-when-who-everything-you-need-to-know-australia-federal-poll-day">Election guide</a>; <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2025/apr/30/australian-election-2025-federal-key-seats-interactive-seat-explorer-map-australian-electoral-divisions-marginal-to-watch">Interactive seat explorer</a></li><li><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/30/who-should-can-i-vote-for-australia-federal-election-policy-guide-labor-liberal-coalition-greens-policies">Party policies</a>; <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/30/australian-election-full-list-micro-minor-parties-party-running-voting-senate-ballot-paper-federal-who-should-vote-what-do-they-stand-for">Micro parties explained</a>; <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/australian-election-2025">Full election coverage</a></li><li><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/series/guardian-australia-podcast-series">Listen to the latest episode of our new narrative podcast series: Gina</a></li><li>Get our <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/email-newsletters?CMP=cvau_sfl">afternoon election email</a>, <a href="https://app.adjust.com/w4u7jx3">free app</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/series/full-story?CMP=cvau_sfl">daily news podcast</a></li></ul><p>A Reserve Bank rate cut on 20 May appears locked in as new data shows the key measure of underlying inflation has dropped below 3% for the first time in three years.</p><p>Headline inflation – which includes the impact of government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/27/peter-duttons-team-have-looted-economic-policies-used-to-fight-past-wars-and-its-not-working-in-2025">cost-of-living policies</a> such as rebates – held steady at 2.4% in the year to March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/email-newsletters?CMP=copyembed">Sign up for the Afternoon Update: Election 2025 email newsletter</a></strong></p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/30/cpi-underlying-inflation-figures-australia-rba-interest-rate-cut">Continue reading...</a>