The Most Dangerous Cognitive Bias

The problem with overconfidence. To help correct your overconfidence we have a tabletop game launching. Pledge your support now on kickstarter! - https://ve42.co/ocdsc

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CHAPTERS:
0:00 The Most Dangerous Cognitive Bias
3:01 How confident are you that you are right?
7:40 Why are people overconfident?
8:53 The Real Dunning-Kruger Effect Graph
10:22 How Your Brain Takes Shortcuts
14:02 How overconfidence is good for you
15:55 Nick Leeson Rogue Trader
17:17 The Importance of Feedback
18:45 How One of England's Oldest Banks Collapsed
20:41 How To Correct Overconfidence

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A big thanks to Professor Moore and Professor Fischhoff

Thank you to everyone who played the game with us @hankschannel, @fryrsquared, @NileRed , @astrumspace, @MinutePhysics and @LookingGlassUniverse

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References: https://ve42.co/OverconfidenceRefs

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Special thanks to our Patreon supporters:

Adam Foreman, Albert Wenger, Alex Porter, Alexander Tamas, Anton Ragin, armedtoe, Bertrand Serlet, Blake Byers, Bruce, Dave Kircher, David Johnston, David Tseng, Evgeny Skvortsov, Garrett Mueller, Gnare, gpoly, Hayden Christensen, Ibby Hadeed, Jeromy Johnson, Jon Jamison, Juan Benet, KeyWestr, Kyi, Lee Redden, Marinus Kuivenhoven, Matthias Wrobel, Meekay, meg noah, Michael Bush, Michael Krugman, Orlando Bassotto, Paul Peijzel, Richard Sundvall, Robert Oliveira, Sam Lutfi, Tj Steyn, Ubiquity Ventures & wolfee

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Writers: Gabe Strong & Derek Muller
Producer & Director: Gabe Strong
Editor: Max Tobin
Additional Editors: James Stuart, Peter Nelson and Jack Saxon
Camera Operator: Casper Mebius and Gabe Strong
Animators: Alex Drakoulis & Fabio Albertelli
Illustrator: Jakub Misiek
Researchers: Naomi Dinmore
Additional researchers: Callum Cuttle
Thumbnail Designers: Abdallah Rabah, Ren Hurley & Ben Powell
Production Team: Josh Pitt, Matthew Cavanagh & Anna Milkovic
Executive Producers: Derek Muller & Zoe Heron

Additional video/photos supplied by Getty Images, Storyblocks
Music from Epidemic Sound

Post from Veritasium on November 12, 2025

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